Arrangement of recallable and nonrecallable transmission service reservations

As the introduction of competition in the power industry, new products have been created while the number of risks to which a market player is exposed to have increased dramatically. In an open access environment, the power transfer capability is a random variable, but current available transfer capability (ATC) postings are deterministic. Managing transmission risks requires a statistical forecast for the expected range of transfer capability. In order to reflect the market activities and operational risks, a bootstrap technique is proposed to accommodate the uncertainty factor consideration in the transfer capability calculation. The proposed method assesses, for incremental levels of transfers, the probability of transaction curtailment. Based on this information a simple method for determining the optimal split of recallable and nonrecallable capacity in each transmission reservation is presented