Contribution to the determination of the basic load proportion of noncentralised, regenerative power generation plants in the supply area of a regional power supplier

Under the German law on energy supply, the Energieversorgung Suedsachsen AG (EVS AG) as a regional supplier with more than half a million customers for both tariff and special contractual conditions, and presupplier to 12 urban plants with a maximum mains supply of more than 920 MW has the obligation to collect and enrich energy which was generated by noncentralised, regenerative power sources. Within the framework of wind measurement programmes, a possible extension of about 360 MW was determined for the supply area of the EVS AG. Based on new developments on the wind power plant market with the clear trend to the erection of wind power plants in the country, this value seems to be feasible in the future. For water power stations, a possible, installed, total capacity of about 40 MW with an increase to come mainly from the extension of formerly shut-down plants is assumed for the future. Feeding by photovoltaic plants is not a relevant scale. In October 1996, the installed capacity of wind power plants amounted to about 34 MW, and of water power plants, to 35 MW. Since the EVS AG does not have independent generating plants, and receives the entire capacity from presuppliers, it is becoming necessary to assess the capacity potentials of noncentralised, regenerative power sources in order to obtain an information on the sum of the monthly guaranteed proportions. The quantity of the energy which is made available by regenerative energy sources at a certain time cannot be ascertained in a deterministic way. The problems arising from an offer-dependent supply can only be dealt with by methods of probability calculus.