Title :
Study on financial risk assessment of substation project based on Monte Carlo simulation
Author :
Wei, Li ; Ya-nan, Yuan ; Wei-dong, Dong ; Bo, Zhang
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China
Abstract :
This main body of this article studied on the financial risk of substation construction project and a substation project financial risk assessment model based on Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. At first, the article put forward the evaluation index of substation project financial risk assessment, and analysed the main risk factors in substation project financial risk assessment. On the basis of this, the substation project financial risk assessment model based on Monte Carlo simulation was established. Then the established model was applied to a substation project financial risk assessment, and the Crystal Ball software was introduced in this article to evaluate the financial risk of substation project, which provided reliable basis for investment decisions.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; construction; power system economics; power system reliability; risk management; substations; Monte Carlo simulation; crystal ball software; evaluation index; financial risk assessment; substation construction project; Analytical models; Substations; Monte Carlo simulation; financial risk; project; substation;
Conference_Titel :
Communication Software and Networks (ICCSN), 2011 IEEE 3rd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Xi´an
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-485-5
DOI :
10.1109/ICCSN.2011.6014389