Uncertainty mitigation in long-term energy technology forecasts

In context with climate change mitigation, there is significant interest in analyzing the potential of new energy technologies, which are likely to achieve most progress in terms of performance improvements and cost reduction. The classic experience/learning curves remain the most popular equation to represent the cost improvements of technologies. However, there exists a number of uncertainties in the use of experience curves to forecast future technological learning and diffusion. This report assess the potential and limitations of experience curves as an analytical tool in energy technology transition analysis. Finally, new planning needs are identified to further elaborate the experience curve approach.