Using Systems Dynamics to Explore Effects of Counterterrorism Policy

This paper suggests that the effects of counterterrorism policy on violent non-state actors can be explored via systems dynamics. Specifically, we create a descriptive model of the flow of persons through the terrorism field. We then demonstrate how the model can be extended to explore "what if" analyses of counterterrorism actions, assisting analysts with identifying fallacious logic chains or important knowledge gaps related to causal explanations. Our model instantiations suggest that developing and implementing counterterrorism policy requires management to avoid continuous and active undesirable long term outcomes