The Evaluation of the Best Timing of Enterprise´s Investment in Mainland China and Estimate Break-Even by the Combination of Scenario Analysis and FMEA Model

The goal of this study is to discuss the best timing of entering China to invest and build factory. Using photomask industry of Taiwan as an example, the key variables were derived by the analysis of examining industrial environment, observing the market and technology of global photomask industry and contrasting with China´s semiconductor industrial environment, and the investment strategies of important manufacturers in photomask industry in recent years; the relevant variables were obtained by consulting and interviewing with 15 experts in photomask industry. Business failure mode effect analysis (BFMEA) was used to discover the important trend of change and was integrated with scenario analysis to obtain the quantitative results as being the reference of investment strategy in decision making level. Quantitative analysis used in this study developed market and business models. Market model is based on the public information as the basis of semiconductor production and experts´ consultations as the references of converting variables to develop the market model of photomask industry. This market model was used to predict future demands. Analyzed data gained from market model was applied into business model to get the relevant information about operation profit. This study found that the fourth quarter in 2003 was the best time point to invest photomask industry in China because 6-inch photomask market had significant growth in 2004 and companies investing China´s photomask market will begin to make profits in 2006