GM (1, 1) Model-Based Analysis and Forecasting of Medical Insurance Funds in China

Based on the income and expenditure data of medical insurance funds in China from 2000 to 2009, this paper mainly analyzes the operational status of the medical insurance funds, and applies GM (1, 1) to conducting chronological analysis and forecasting. The purpose is provides important theoretical basis for stable operation and scientific budget of the funds, which is benefitful to designing medical insurance-related policies, and to promoting effective and rational utilization of health resource. Analysis that the total expenditure of the fund´s expenditure is obviously faster than that of the fund´s income and accumulation savings. It will weaken remarkably the fund´s function on security, mutual help and regulation redistribution. So suggest that drawing up relative laws and regulations on medical insurances fund, perfecting network service system, reforming the fund´s levying system, and establishing the scientific payment system.