The development and deployment of a quality forecasting system for surface mount assembly of portable wireless products

This paper outlines a quality forecasting system developed by Motorola which is used to proactively generate a detailed surface mount assembly manufacturing quality report for a new product design even before the first prototype has been fabricated. The quality forecasting system uses a combination of historical quality data from previous products as well as dynamic component quality modeling to estimate quality levels for every component in the assembly. In order to simulate new component technologies, estimation factors are generated based on historical data of parametrically similar parts extrapolated to account for defined differences. The models used have been demonstrated to proactively predict defects per unit to within 3 % of production levels, and to proactively drive quality improvements for a new product by as much as 25%. This paper will focus on the development, deployment, and impact this tool set has had on Motorola assembly quality levels.