Estimation of a neonatal cardiovascular risk score by biomedical discriminant analysis

Genetics is a primary factory for the predisposition of a newborn to elevated blood pressure (BP) later in life. The search for an index for this factor, needed to assess, on the neonate, the success of failure of preventive interventions instituted on pregnant women, is discussed. This index could be based on characteristics of BP and heart rate (HR) variability during the first days after birth. In the search for such an index, the systolic and diastolic BP and HR of 150 newborns were automatically monitored at about 30-min intervals for 48 h starting early after birth. The newborns were assigned to a group of either a negative or positive family history of high BP. Circadian characteristics and descriptive statistics for the three circulatory variables were used for classification by a `monotest´, an all-subsets variable selection technique for biomedical discriminate analysis. The monotest is discussed in detail. When the 90% range of systolic BP was used as classifier, the monotest yielded a 69% total classification equivalent to prior criteria