Forecasting methodology and traffic estimation for satellite multimedia services

Broadband satellite networks are a mandatory complement to the terrestrial facility to build up the information infrastructure, especially for unserved and underserved regions of the world. This paper applies the generalized bass model (GBM) to estimate the number of multimedia subscribers for specified services. Because of varying demographics, economics, and interests, countries are grouped into several “regions”, and a different model is used for each service, and for each region. The models also include the effect of price elasticity. An analysis of competing emerging broadband access technologies is performed and the market share for satellite-based services is estimated. The subscribers representing the satellite share of the market for each service are then geographically distributed across each region. The resulting subscriber distribution is used to generate hourly point-to-point traffic. In this paper, only methodologies for market forecast and traffic estimation are discussed