Simulating the optimized participation of distributed controllable generators at the spot market for electricity considering prediction errors

In this paper, a multi-step simulation tool for the evaluation of operation strategies with predictive concepts for controllable distributed generators is proposed and applied exemplarily to perform an annual simulation of a sewage gas CHP trading at a power exchange. The analysis quantifies the disturbing effect of prediction errors as compared to a simulation without predictive elements. The simulation recognizes the prediction error of the thermal load, the gas production and the price at the power exchange as an unavoidable disturbing effect. This results in a less profitable schedule than the optimum and requires compensation by utilizing balancing energy. The comparison of the simulation without prediction error and the one with prediction error shows the significance of the disturbing effect. The results show that it is necessary to include prediction errors for the analysis of the economic potential of distributed generators taking part at day-ahead markets.