Predictive assessment and reliability worth

It is incumbent on power system managers, designers, planners and operators to ensure that customers receive adequate and secure supplies within reasonable economic constraints. Historically, this has been assessed using deterministic criteria, techniques and indices. Although the application of probability theory has been continuously developed since the 1930s, it is only relatively recently that the techniques, data and computational resources have reached the stage where they are directly applicable to practical planning and operational decision making. This paper discusses reliability assessment and related issues for power system hierarchical level III, the power distribution system