A substitution and diffusion model with exogenous impact: forecasting of IMT-2000 subscribers in Korea

Author

Kim, Yun Bae ; Seo, Shin Young ; Lee, Young-Tae

Author_Institution

Sch. of Syst. & Manage. Eng., Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon, South Korea

Volume

2

fYear

1999

fDate

1999

Firstpage

948

Abstract

The demand forecasting for new telecommunication services has used on modeling the diffusion process, because many new services are based on technological innovations. The original work of modeling diffusion process by Bass (1969) is a model of timing for adoption. The Norton and Bass (1986) multi-generation model is the extension of the classical Bass model to the multi-generation situation. The mobile communication service market of Korea has an outside impact by the service providers that makes the direct use of the Norton and Bass model impossible. In this paper, we discuss the problems of existing forecasting models and propose a new model for the forecasting of IMT-2000 subscribers in Korea. The forecast of IMT-2000 subscribers is provided

Keywords

cellular radio; modelling; telecommunication network planning; telecommunication services; IMT-2000 subscribers; Korea; classical Bass model; demand forecasting; diffusion model; diffusion process; forecasting models; mobile communication service market; modeling; multi-generation model; technological innovations; telecommunication services; timing; Demand forecasting; Diffusion processes; Economic forecasting; Intelligent networks; Mobile communication; Multiaccess communication; Predictive models; Technological innovation; Telecommunication services; Timing;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Vehicular Technology Conference, 1999. VTC 1999 - Fall. IEEE VTS 50th

Conference_Location

Amsterdam

ISSN

1090-3038

Print_ISBN

0-7803-5435-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/VETECF.1999.798470

Filename

798470