Capacity Credit Evaluation of Wind Power with Sequential Monte Carlo Method

Wind can be considered as an interesting alternative to fossil fuels, but as a power source, is both intermittent and diffuse. It is necessary to calculate wind equivalent capacities in order to introduce a coherent evaluation of wind production in the management of the centralized production park. Base on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique for wind speeds, an auto-regressive and moving average time series model was used to simulate wind power. And a capacity credit evaluation of wind power method was proposed, which provides the existence probability of wind generation possible outage capacity levels. A number of sensitivity analyses were presented with case studies to illustrate possible applications of the proposed method.