Using the Modern Financial Theory to Obtain the Optimal Level of Contract Demand and Predict Payments of Electrical Energy Invoice

This work presents a methodology to be used in order to obtain the optimal level of contract demand to be settled by an electric utility and a specific customer, with a conventional or seasonal tariff system. From the analogy between the electricity invoice and the financial options theory, it is possible to obtain a closed form which is optimized and refined by numeric computer program, by taking into consideration the tolerance limits established on the 456 resolution of National Agency of Electric Energy (ANEEL). Cases studies are shown in order to show the applicability of the methodology presented. The results are compared with traditional methodologies used in the Brazilian power system