Incident Duration Model on Urban Freeways Based on Classification and Regression Tree

Effective incident management requires accurate prediction of incident duration. In this paper, classification and regression tree (CART) is employed to model the incident duration. All 65000 incident records from Beijing transportation management bureau are used for model establishment and another 8000 records for validation. The average relative error of the CART model is 29.5197%. It shows that the reliability of the model is quite satisfactory. The average relative error of the prediction on different ring roads of Beijing is approximately the same.