Title :
Risk assessment model for wind power integrated power systems using conditional value-at-risk
Author :
Dong Han ; Zheng Yan ; Libing Yang ; Yuanrui Hong
Author_Institution :
Key Lab. of Control of Power Transm. & Conversion of Minist. of Educ., Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., Shanghai, China
Abstract :
Wind power as a renewable source plays a key role for the achievement of the environment-friendly energy structure of power systems. But the uncertainty and fast fluctuation of wind speeds are crucial problems for the availability of wind energy, which also bring more risk threatening the reliability and safety of system operation. In this paper, a revenue model is presented to evaluate the impact of the stochastic wind power on power system operation. The model can provide the possible loss in economical manner to measure the influence due to uncertainties, based on application of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Moreover, risk evaluation indexes representing potential economical loss and mean excess loss in different confidence levels can be used to illustrate the future risk degree. The validity of the model has been verified by the numerical simulation results.
Keywords :
power generation economics; power generation reliability; risk management; wind power; conditional value-at-risk; environment-friendly energy structure; mean excess loss; potential economical loss; renewable source; risk assessment model; system operation safety; wind energy; wind power integrated power systems; wind speeds; Electricity; Numerical models; Reactive power; Risk management; Uncertainty; Wind power generation; CVaR; Risk assessment; evaluation index; revenue model; wind power;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC), 2014 IEEE PES Asia-Pacific
DOI :
10.1109/APPEEC.2014.7065975
