Calculation of electrical energy balances of production systems based on probabilistic-statistical approach

The paper analyzes well-known methods of calculation of electrical energy balances on enterprises. The drawbacks of these methods under conditions of fuzzy and incomplete initial information are shown. In order to obtain more reliable electrical energy balances under such conditions a new probabilistic-statistical approach is proposed. The method uses a hierarchical principle of obtaining electrical energy balances with two levels: electrical energy balances by types of products and electrical energy balances by technological equipment, which are involved in production processes of each type of products. Advisability of application regression analysis for calculation electrical energy balances on the first level is considered. The methods proposed for calculation electrical energy balances on the second level include expert survey, simulation, probabilistic-statistical methods and optimization techniques.