Bulk power reliability and statistical assessment: an application

This paper presents the methodology to evaluate the stationary state reliability of a composite power system hierarchical level II (HLII), based upon an application of the system state sampling Monte Carlo technique, a linear optimization model (that takes care of the generation re-dispatch and minimizes power not served) and a fast contingency analysis employing a DC load flow (DC LF). In addition, a full AC load flow (AC LF) is included. A digital program was developed to determine system reliability indexes such as: expected demand not supplied (EDNS), expected energy not supplied (EENS), expected number of load curtailments (ENLC), probability of the load curtailment (PLC), expected duration of load curtailment (EDLC). Equally, a statistical analysis is presented to classify the types of system states generated during the simulation process. This study was applied to the IEEE reliability test system (IEEE-RTS) and to a simplified model of the current network of the AES-ELECAR power system, which serves the metropolitan area of the city of Caracas, Venezuela.