Cost based failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) for systems of accelerator magnets

The proposed Next Linear Collider (NLC) has a proposed 85% overall availability goal, the availability specifications for all its 7200 magnets and their 6167 power supplies are 97.5% each. Thus all of the electromagnets and their power supplies must be highly reliable or quickly repairable. Improved reliability or repairability comes at a higher cost. We have developed a set of analysis procedures for magnet designers to use as they decide how much effort to exert, i.e. how much money to spend, to improve the reliability of a particular style of magnet. We show these procedures being applied to a standard SLAC electromagnet design in order to make it reliable enough to meet the NLC availability specs. First, empirical data from SLAC´s accelerator failure database plus design experience are used to calculate MTBF for failure modes identified through a FMEA. Availability for one particular magnet can be calculated. Next, labor and material costs to repair magnet failures are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the total cost of all failures over a 30-year lifetime. Opportunity costs are included. Engineers choose from amongst various designs by comparing lifecycle costs.