A Monte Carlo approach for assessment of investments deferral in radial distribution networks with distributed generation

Distributed generation (DG) is located in distribution networks near to consumers or even in the consumers´ side of the meter. Therefore, net demand to be supplied from transmission and distribution can decrease postponing the need to reinforce existing networks. This paper proposes a method to assess the impact of DG connection to radial distribution networks on investment deferral in the long-term. Due to the randomness of involved variables (load demand patterns, DG hourly energy production, DG availability, etc.) a probabilistic approach using a Monte Carlo simulation is adopted. Several scenarios characterized by different DG penetration, and concentration levels, and DG technology mix, are analyzed. Results show that, once initial network reinforcements for DG connection has been accomplished, DG can defer feeder or transformer investments due to the natural load growth in the medium and long term.