SCM simulator with uncertain parameters

This paper describes a software simulator, called LOSIMOPU, for finding bottleneck and redundancy in a supply chain among customers, vendors, manufactures, and suppliers. While LOSIMOPU allows each player to have its own policy and capacity, it should handle uncertain factors in demand and logistics. Under the premise that these uncertain factors are represented as probabilistic variables, LOSIMOPU runs Monte Carlo simulation. This paper describes how to represent these uncertain factors and how to show the simulation result visually. This paper discusses not only the implementation issues but also the prototype system for an assembly type manufacturing supply chain