Tailoring a Generic BBN Model for the Quantitative Safety Analysis of Complex Systems

A generic safety BBN model for systems subject to Low Probability High Consequences (LPHC) accidents has recently been proposed [3]. This model attempts to quantify ideas that feature in qualitative accident models such as reason´s [12] swiss-cheese model (also known as the rotating disks model), Rasmussen and Svedung´s [11] socio-technical model, and Leveson´s [8] systems theory accident modelling and processes (STAMP). A feasibility study has shown the usefulness of the model in the civil aviation industry by succeeding to replicate global statistical data such as accident rate, contribution of pilots to accidents and others [4]. The feasibility study showed that it is crucial to tailor the model to a domain of interest and this aspect of the application of the generic BBN model needs more elaboration. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue and use civil aviation for exemplifying the process.