A Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for Forecasting Urban Water Resources Demand

According to the characteristics of urban water resources system, a nonlinear dynamics approach for forecasting urban water demand was introduced in order to give scientific support to sound plan of waterworks and its appendix building. Based on analysis of water resources in Qinhuangdao, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed for water system simulation of the city for forecasting the tendency of the planning years. The practical verification shows this method forecast relative error is lower than 10%. Finally, the strong support to optimal decisionmaking is shown by applying SD model in policy adjusting simulation and decision making design.