A Traffic Distribution Forecast Model of City Large Special Events Based on the BPR Model

With the continuous development of urban traffic, more and more large special events have been held in the city. It is a challenge to the research of traffic engineering to ensure the convenience, safe, punctual and comfortable trip, and to reduce the impact on normal resident trip during the period of large special events. Based on the forecast of traffic generation of large special events, this paper divided the city to several zones based on the urban audience and forecasted the traffic distribution by using the improved gravity model that considering the factors of zone economy, population, the distance to the venue and the convenience of traffic. Finally the accuracy of the model was validated by the example of forecasting the opening ceremony of the Sixth National City Games in Wuhan. The research of this paper has important consult meaning and instruction meaning to the traffic organization for the same style large special events in future.