Landscape Change and its Simulation using GIS, Landscape Ecology and the Markov Model

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) was quantified for the last 30 years within the Dianchi area of Yunnan province, P. R. China, using rectified aerial photographs and geographic information systems (GIS). The LUCC was projected for the next 15 years with Markov chains. The study explored the relationships between government policies, population growth, economy development and landscape change. The analysis of Markov matrices indicated that cropland, followed by grasslands, were the most precarious category. Water surface and construction lands were the most stable categories. The LUCC is changing: the area of crop land, grasslands and bare lands will keep on decreasing, whereas the area of forest land, construction land will continue to increase.