A Comparative Analysis of Telecommunications Restructure Effects in China

The telecommunications policy and industry development in China have attracted sizable interests. However, there is a lack of empirical studies to evaluate the effect of China´s telecommunications reform and restructure. In line with most scholars opinions, we believe that telecommunications restructure in China began in 1994 and has become ldquovery dramatic and far-reachingrdquo since 1998. We treat such kind of telecommunications restructure as a policy intervention. A Box-Tiao intervention analysis model is built as an intervention variable. The annual telephone subscribers (including fixed and mobile) ranging from 1949 to 2007 were chosen as time series sample data. Based on the time series data, an ARIMA model was obtained, the parameters were estimated and the residual series was tested. The paper presents comparative analysis of China telecommunications restructure effect.