Development of a Rutting Prediction Model through Accelerated Pavement Testing Using Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH)

The application of group method of data handling (GMDH) to pavement performance evaluation is relatively new. This paper demonstrates the development of pavement rutting prediction model by using GMDH method. Results from 7 test pavements (264 records) from CRREL´s HVS, a closely controlled full-scale accelerated pavement testing (APT), were employed to establish a rutting prediction model. Additional 2 test pavements (81 records) from CRREL´s HVS were utilized for model verification purposes. GMDH was applied successfully to develop a rutting prediction model that uses wheel load, load repetitions and the pavement structural number (SN) as inputs. The R² for training data (264 records) and verification data (81 records) are 0.6455 and 0.6288, respectively. The model and algorithms proposed in this study provide a good foundation for further refinement when additional data is available.