Research on cost modified forecast model based on correlation of project

Considering correlation of work in project, this paper develops a cost modified prediction in project, which measures the correlation of each work or project using exponential correlation function, modifies the expectation value and covariance of the uncompleted work or project using the completed based on Bayes theorem, and then predicts the total cost of project under the given confidence level. This model can achieve early warning if the manager provides the limits to the cost of project.