Failure prediction method for Network Management System by using Bayesian network and shared database

Network Management System (NMS) is a service that employs a variety of tools, applications, and devices to assist network administrators on monitoring and maintaining network. Keeping the network in high quality of service is the main purpose of NMS. This paper proposed a method to solve the network problem by making a prediction of failure based on network-data behavior. The prediction represented by conditional probability generated by Bayesian network. Bayesian network is a probability graphical model for representing the probabilistic relationship among a large number of variables and doing probabilistic inference with those variables. In order to describe how the prediction works, we discuss the prediction result by simulation on network congestion.