Modelling the future of Bangladesh´s power sector focusing renewable energy technologies

This paper presents an assessment of future energy-supply strategies for the power sector of Bangladesh. It identifies the prospects for the further economic development of the country while ensuring energy security and mitigating environmental impacts. The MARKAL standard version is used to model Bangladesh´s power sector including already existing as well as innovative energy conversion technologies. Different policy scenarios for the evaluation of the power sector from 2005 to 2035 are explored. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies like CO₂ emission reduction by establishing a target, or accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The model predicts that alternative policies will not result in significantly higher cumulative discounted total energy system cost. The system cost increases up to 26% over the base scenario. The alternative scenarios reduce imported fuel by up to 97%. Renewable energy technologies, especially solar photovoltaic play an important role in achieving reasonable energy security.