DocumentCode
5735
Title
Forecast combining using a generalized single multiplicative neuron
Author
Velasquez, Juan David ; Zambrano, Cristian O. ; Franco, Carlos J.
Author_Institution
Univ. Nac. de Colombia, Sede Medellin, Colombia
Volume
12
Issue
4
fYear
2014
fDate
Jun-14
Firstpage
713
Lastpage
717
Abstract
Forecast combining is an important technique for increasing the accuracy of the forecasts obtained using different alternative models. In this article, we propose the use of a generalized single multiplicative neuron as a nonlinear combiner inside of a forecasts combination model. Numerical evidences indicate that, at least for the experimental case, the multiplicative neuron is able to obtain forecasts more accurate that each individual model and the forecasts combination using a simple arithmetical average.
Keywords
forecasting theory; forecast combining; generalized single multiplicative neuron; nonlinear combiner; Atmospheric modeling; Biological neural networks; Computational modeling; Forecasting; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Combination of forecasts; Holt-Winters model; SARIMA; ensemble methods; neural networks;
fLanguage
English
Journal_Title
Latin America Transactions, IEEE (Revista IEEE America Latina)
Publisher
ieee
ISSN
1548-0992
Type
jour
DOI
10.1109/TLA.2014.6868874
Filename
6868874
Link To Document