Title :
Spares Consumption Combination Forecasting Based on Genetic Algorithm and Exponential Smoothing Method
Author :
Guo Feng ; Liu Chen-yu ; Zhou Bin ; Zhang Su-Qin
Author_Institution :
Qingdao Branch, Naval Aeronaut. Eng. Inst., Qingdao, China
Abstract :
In view of the characteristics that the linear exponential smoothing, secondary exponential smoothing, cubic exponential smoothing had different fitting degree when predicted the spares with the different consumption discipline, optimized results of these three methods through the combination prediction model, and solved it by genetic algorithm and used the obtained results with minimum error as spares consumption quota. the prediction results show that the model predicts accurately, with high utility and promotion.
Keywords :
genetic algorithms; maintenance engineering; smoothing methods; combination prediction model; cubic exponential smoothing; exponential smoothing method; fitting degree; genetic algorithm; linear exponential smoothing; secondary exponential smoothing; spares consumption combination forecasting; spares consumption quota; Forecasting; Genetic algorithms; Integrated circuits; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; Sociology; combination forecasting; cubic exponential smoothing; genetic algorithm; linear exponential smoothing; secondary exponential smoothing; spares consumption quota;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Intelligence and Design (ISCID), 2012 Fifth International Symposium on
Conference_Location :
Hangzhou
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-2646-9
DOI :
10.1109/ISCID.2012.201