The value of accuracy in wind energy forecasts

Wind generation of electricity is both variable and unpredictable in its nature. Wind energy forecasting is a means of addressing both of these issues. This study quantifies the effects of the accuracy of wind energy forecasts on the operation of the Irish electricity system of 2020. Through combined use of day-ahead scheduling and real-time simulations, it was found that there are notable savings to be made and that changes occur in the dispatch of generator technology types with improvements in wind forecast accuracy. There are potential savings of on average 0.27% of total generation cost for every percentage point decrease in the normalised mean absolute error of wind forecasts. This is mainly resulting from less frequent use of high-cost OCGT´s on the system due to the day-ahead schedule becoming a more accurate representation of actual generation as wind forecast accuracy improves. There is also a slight reduction in wind curtailment with increased accuracy of the day-ahead unit commitment schedule.