A stepwise regression method for forecasting net interchange schedule

Author

Vlachopoulou, Maria ; Ferryman, T. ; Ning Zhou ; Jianzhong Tong

Author_Institution

Pacific Northwest Nat. Lab., Richland, WA, USA

fYear

2013

fDate

21-25 July 2013

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

5

Abstract

The net interchange schedule (NIS) is the sum of the transactions (MW) between an Independent System Operator (ISO)/ Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the submitted NIS can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper presents a stepwise regression method for forecasting NIS. The stepwise regression method uses significance analysis to identify the most influential explanatory variables. Identifying the most influential explanatory variables can reduce model order and lead to better and faster prognostics. The performance of the stepwise regression method is evaluated using the field measurement data from PJM Interconnection (RTO).

Keywords

ISO standards; load forecasting; power grids; power system identification; power system interconnection; power system measurement; regression analysis; scheduling; ISO; Independent System Operator; NIS; PJM Interconnection; RTO; Regional Transmission Organization; field measurement data; forecasting net interchange scheduling; grid operation efficiency; model order reduction; power system identification; prognostics; stepwise regression method; Computational modeling; Data models; Forecasting; Heating; Market research; Power systems; Predictive models; explanatory variables; net interchange schedule; power grid operations; statistical significance; stepwise regression;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PES), 2013 IEEE

Conference_Location

Vancouver, BC

ISSN

1944-9925

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PESMG.2013.6672763

Filename

6672763