Evaluating policy interventions for delayed discharge: A system dynamics approach

Global population ageing is creating an immense pressure on hospitals to meet the growing demand for elderly healthcare services. Current demand-supply gaps results in prolonged waiting times for patients and substantial costs for hospitals due to delay in discharges. This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) methodology to map the dynamic flow of elderly patients in the Irish healthcare system. The developed system dynamic model helped decision makers to envisage the complexity resulted in the system due to the infringing parameters. Stock and flow intervention policies are proposed and evaluated subject to the projected future demographic changes. The model enables policy makers to identify potential strategic policies that will contribute significantly to overcome the delayed discharge for elderly patients. Future work will focus on using a modified model of the developed national model in order to assist local communities in Ireland in their long-term planning for non-acute service sector for elderly.