A note on computing the exact probability distribution of the project completion time in a stochastic PERT network

Author

Milian, Zdzislaw

Author_Institution

Dept. of Civil Eng., Cracow Univ. of Technol., Cracow, Poland

fYear

2013

fDate

10-13 Dec. 2013

Firstpage

78

Lastpage

82

Abstract

In this paper a recursive method of determining the exact probability distribution of the project completion time in stochastic PERT networks is presented. It is assumed that durations of particular tasks are independent random variables with known distributions. The method concerns any network and can be applied in the case of any continuous distributions of task durations. Examples of exact density functions of project completion time for some networks are given. A comparison with the straightforward method is also included.

Keywords

PERT; network theory (graphs); project management; statistical distributions; stochastic processes; continuous task duration distributions; exact probability distribution; independent random variables; project completion time; stochastic PERT networks; Joints; Operations research; Polynomials; Probability density function; Probability distribution; Random variables; Stochastic processes; PERT network; exact distributions;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), 2013 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Bangkok

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IEEM.2013.6962378

Filename

6962378