Optimization of prediction approach for improving students orientation in university: Case of Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdelah University (SMBAU)

Determine the right size of the tree is a crucial operation in the construction of a decision tree from a large volume of data. It largely determines its performance when deployed in the population. This is to avoid two extremes: the sub-study, defined by a tree too small, poorly capturing useful information of the training data; overfitting, defined by a exaggerated size of tree, capturing the specific training data, characteristics that can not be transposed in the population. In both cases, we have a little performance prediction model. Our work is summarized by optimizing a predictive model with the CART method for pre-university orientation s[1]; This is a compromise between the reliability of the model on the training set and the generalization of the model case University Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdelah (SMBAU) of Fez.