Including forecasting error of renewable generation on the optimal load dispatch

In this paper a probabilistic model to solve the economic dispatch (ED) problem considering the uncertainty introduced by power sources, such as wind and solar, is presented. Assuming the forecasting error to be modeled by a beta probability distribution function (PDF), the proposed methodology presented in this paper allows the incorporation of this PDF in the optimization model, obtaining the PDF of power production of thermal and renewable generators, energy not supplied, excess of electricity, and generation cost. The results obtained from the proposed methodology are compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach, observing a good agreement.