The Quantitative Research of Impact of Climate Change and Reservoir Operation on the Runoff Based on Computer Simulation

This paper builds an integrated platform by coupling SWAT model and RegCM3 model which is used in the lancing-Mekong river. Based on the integrated platform, and quantitatively studies the impact of the climate change and reservoir operation on the runoff of lower reaches of the Lancing-Mekong river in different scenarios. The results show that: In the next twenty years, both of climate change and reservoir operation will lead to a drop of the runoff. Of all the factors of Lancang-Mekong river runoff decrease, reservoir operation contributes to 12% and climate change 88%, so the major cause of the change of the runoff is climate change. In the impact factors of climate change, the contribution rate of temperature change accounts for 81% and precipitation change 19%. It´s believed that the most important influence factor of the lower reaches of the Lancang-Mekong river runoff is temperature change.