Simple is beautiful: Toward light prediction markets

This column examines the cognitive load of prediction markets from four steps of user´s decision process (that is, timing, pricing, revisiting, and benefit) and discusses how a prediction market mechanism could have a low cognitive load. In the column, the authors propose that fixed-odds betting can be used as a prediction market mechanism with carefully designed event probability estimators. The development of low-cognitive load prediction markets needs the join efforts of computer scientists and economists.