Title :
Uncertainty considerations in frequency and duration analysis for large hydrothermal generating systems
Author :
Da Silva, A. M Leite ; Coelho, J. ; Melo, A.C.G.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Emng., Catholic Univ. of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
fDate :
5/1/1992 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
The authors present a general and practical method for evaluating the mean and variance of the frequency and duration indices for a single-area system. The method is based on discrete convolution, which is especially efficient when applied to large hydrothermal generating systems. It recognises the uncertain nature of generating unit transition rates and forecast peak loads by treating these parameters as random variables with specified statistics. Clustering techniques are used to model the uncertainties in the output capacities of hydraulic units. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the resulting indices of typical systems, including the IEEE Reliability Test System and the Brazilian South/Southeastern generating system
Keywords :
electric power generation; power systems; Brazilian South/Southeastern generating system; IEEE Reliability Test System; clustering techniques; duration analysis; forecast peak loads; frequency analysis; generating unit transition rates; hydraulic units; hydrothermal generating systems; random variables;
Journal_Title :
Generation, Transmission and Distribution, IEE Proceedings C
