Expert judgment in maintenance optimization

Author

Van Noortwijk, Jan M. ; Dekker, Rommert ; Cooke, Roger M. ; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.

Author_Institution

Fac. of Tech. Math. & Inf., Delft Univ. of Technol., Netherlands

Volume

41

Issue

3

fYear

1992

fDate

9/1/1992 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

427

Lastpage

432

Abstract

A comprehensive method for the use of expert opinion for obtaining lifetime distributions required for maintenance optimization is proposed. The method includes procedures for the elicitation of discretized lifetime distributions from several experts, the combination of the elicited expert opinion into a consensus distribution, and the updating of the consensus distribution with failure and maintenance data. The development of the method was prompted by the lack of statistical training of the experts and the high demands on their time. The use of a discretized life distribution provides more flexibility, is more comprehendible by the experts in the elicitation stage, and greatly reduces the computation in the combination and updating stages. The methodology is Bayes, using the Dirichlet distribution as the prior distribution for the elicited discrete lifetime distribution. Methods are described for incorporating information concerning the expertise of the experts into the analysis

Keywords

Bayes methods; maintenance engineering; optimisation; reliability; statistical analysis; Bayes methods; Dirichlet distribution; consensus distribution; discretized life distribution; elicited expert opinion; lifetime distributions; maintenance optimization; reliability; Cost function; Decision support systems; Distributed computing; Histograms; Optimization methods; Preventive maintenance; Probability; Reliability theory; Statistical analysis; Statistical distributions;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Reliability, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9529

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/24.159813

Filename

159813