A Monte Carlo method for multi-area generation system reliability assessment

The authors present a method for multiarea generation system reliability assessment. It is based on direct sampling of generating unit states, the clustering technique, and the correlative normal distribution sampling technique of the load states. A linear programming model was used to minimize the total load curtailment. Area load uncertainty, correlation between area loads, and generating unit derated state were considered. Incorporation of these factors does not create a significant increase in computing time. Sensitivity indices of both system and each area to area generation and tie line capacities can be calculated. These indices provide information regarding which tie line or which area generating capacity should be reinforced from the overall system and each area point of view. Calculation results of a four-area system are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method