A Gauss-Markov load model for application in risk evaluation and production simulation

Load uncertainty contributes to system operational risk; thus the study of system operating reserve or unit commitment risk requires a load model that includes the uncertainty in load as well as the variation with time. The authors propose a Gauss-Markov load model. This random process model includes both the time variation and the uncertainty in load. This load model is used to predict, conditional on what is known at a previous hour, the mean and the variance of the system hourly load. This mean and variance are required for a system operating reserve study and a broad spectrum of production simulations. The proposed load model is described, the model is justified, and the model is illustrated via an example