Power system expansion planning under uncertainty

A methodology is described for expansion planning of power systems under uncertainty in factors such as demand growth, fuel cost, delay in project completion, and financial constraints The approach draws upon three classes of techniques: decomposition and stochastic optimization provide the basic framework, and allow an implicit representation of alternative investment strategies; decision analysis is used to represent the dynamic aspects of decision-making as uncertainties are resolved over time; and hedging objectives from tradeoff analysis help select flexible and resilient expansion strategies. Case studies within the Brazilian system are presented and discussed