Estimating Dynamic Queue Distribution in a Signalized Network Through a Probability Generating Model

Most existing discussions regarding the time-dependent distribution of queue length was undertaken in the context of isolated intersections. However, computing queue length distributions for a signalized network with generic topology is very challenging because such process involves convolution and nonlinear transformation of random variables, which is analytically intractable. To address such issue, this study proposes a stochastic queue model considering the strong interdependence relations between adjacent intersections using the probability generating function as a mathematical tool. Various traffic flow phenomena, including queue formation and dissipation, platoon dispersion, flow merging and diverging, queue spillover, and downstream blockage, are formulated as stochastic events, and their distributions are iteratively computed through a stochastic network loading procedure. Both theoretical derivation and numerical investigations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in analyzing the delay and queues of signalized networks under different congestion levels.