Forecasting the total impact of major new industrial plant on company electric energy requirements

The authors describe the application of advanced econometric techniques and economic theory to better forecast the total impact of a major new industrial plant on a utility´s internal energy requirements. A simultaneous-equation system linking the various economic sectors of a utility´s service area is estimated and impact stabilizers are derived from the coefficients. The multipliers predict both the primary and secondary effects of a new plant on local employment and income. These variables are then used in energy models to forecast the total increase in electric load-including both primary and secondary gains-caused by the new plant.<>