DocumentCode :
986157
Title :
A Bayes procedure for estimation of current system reliability
Author :
Calabria, R. ; Guida, M. ; Pulcini, G.
Author_Institution :
Nat. Res. Council of Italy, Napoli, Italy
Volume :
41
Issue :
4
fYear :
1992
fDate :
12/1/1992 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage :
616
Lastpage :
620
Abstract :
During development of a new system, a test-analyze-and-fix program is often applied to eliminate the flaws in the first design of the system. If the corrective actions are effective, the system reliability increase. This process can be carried out for a planned time period or until a fixed reliability goal is achieved. In both cases, it is important to evaluate the system reliability during the test phase. Reliability growth can be reasonably modeled by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a decreasing power intensity law. For such a process, a Bayes procedure for estimating the failure intensity at the time of the last failure and of the current system reliability is analyzed for failure-truncated sampling. A large simulation study shows that the procedure, even for vague prior information, is more efficient than maximum likelihood and at least as efficient as the quasi-Bayes method of J.J. Higgins and C.P. Tsokos (1981)
Keywords :
Bayes methods; engineering computing; failure analysis; probability; reliability theory; Bayes procedure; current system reliability; design; development; engineering computing; estimation; failure; failure analysis; nonhomogeneous Poisson process; power intensity law; probability; test phase; Art; Councils; Failure analysis; Maximum likelihood estimation; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Reliability theory; Sampling methods; Statistical analysis; System testing;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Reliability, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0018-9529
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/24.249599
Filename :
249599
Link To Document :
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