Abstract :
Starting from current trends in the field of land mobile radio-telephone services, primarily in the United States of America, forecasts of development over the next ten to twenty years have been made. It is estimated that by 1970 there will be two and a half million mobile telephones in the United States and over thirteen million by 1980. There is a discussion of the interrelated political, economic and engineering factors which will affect the future of vehicular communications. To meet user needs, coordinated broad-band systems are predicted for use cooperatively and on a common carrier basis with great efficiency of spectrum utilization. Currently, a broad-band system of 1000 channels could be accommodated in about 75 Mc of contiguous frequency spectrum in the lower part of the UHF band. It is conceivable that within the next two decades many more channels could be accommodated in a given bandwidth. Reducing the cost of mobile telephones is both necessary and capable of attainment. Pocket-size for a mobile telephone is indicated as probable during this period. New features for user convenience and better systems perfornance, such as full-duplex operation, push buttons for signaling, improved frequency stability, automatic channel selection and mobile station identification are predicted in coordinated systems within the next twenty years. y the IRE, June 26, 1961.
